John Cavanaugh campaign touts poll showing frontrunner in Nebraska's 2nd District primary

Results from an earlier poll by Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades also showed Cavanaugh leading the race, but with Rhoades only a few points behind. The two candidate polls provide an early glimpse at the standings in the race to win the Democratic nomination in May and eventually vie for the seat in November. With no incumbent running in the deeply purple district, the race has already drawn big dollars and a lot of attention — it's the only one major pollsters have identified as leaning towards a flip. 

Cavanaugh's poll of likely Democratic voters conducted last week asked: "If the 2026 Democratic primary election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote?"

Of 400 participants, 36% said they would vote for Cavanaugh and 71% recognized his name. The poll showed Rhoades receiving the next highest percentage of likely votes with 15% and 45% name recognition. It also showed that candidates can still win over many voters — 29% were undecided. 

Cavanaugh's campaign commissioned Washington D.C.-based consultant GBAO to conduct the poll, which reached likely Democratic voters over calls and texts. The poll's margin for error is 4.3%.

GBAO Pollster Karl Agne said Cavanaugh "starts this race with a significant advantage. In order for any other candidate to challenge him, they would first have to dramatically increase their name ID and then consolidate virtually all undecided voters — an extremely tall task in a crowded primary." 

Rhoades, a former chair of the Douglas County Democrats who runs a political consulting firm with her husband, said the poll doesn't match her data.

She shared on Monday results from a poll Change Research conducted in May and June that showed Cavanaugh leading by a smaller margin. Rhoades said a third-party commissioned the poll while recruiting her to run.

The poll was conducted over text messages with 445 participants who almost entirely said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary. Cavanaugh polled at 30% and Rhoades at 26%, with 27% undecided and the rest split between a mix of declared and possible candidates. That poll's margin of error was 6.3%, and Rhoades noted she was within that margin. 

Rhoades said she's confident in the results of her poll and that the participants reflect the electorate in the primary. She said the difference from Cavanaugh's poll may come from different samples of voters. Rhoades' poll showed her trailing Cavanaugh in name recognition and she said her campaign has more room to grow and gain voters.

Rhoades has served in elected office for almost two decades and touts her working-class background. 

Nate Silver, an analyst of elections and polls, rated GBAO's polling performance in 2024 a B or C and Change Research a B-. The grade reflects expectations for error relative to the average, and Silver's model categorized most firms into the B to C range.  

Turnout in a party primary is typically low, drawing less than 25% of registered voters, and GBAO highlighted that among voters who cast a ballot in each of the last four Democratic primary elections, Cavanaugh received a majority of votes and led the field by 47 percentage points.

Cavanaugh said in a phone call Monday that the district needs someone to stand up to President Donald Trump's administration and that he's stood up to Gov. Jim Pillen as a lawmaker, pointing out his opposition to sales tax increases proposed to relieve property taxes. 

Legislating "requires a lot of work and building bridges and knowing when to compromise and when to fight, and I'm the only one with that history and that experience," Cavanaugh said.

Primary voters, he said, will also elect the candidate who can beat the Republican nominee, and he believes the poll shows voters have confidence in him to win. 

"I'm born and raised in Omaha, with very deep roots in the community," Cavanaugh said. "I'm a fifth-generation Nebraskan and have been active in public service for decades and my family has as well. That deep family connection is something that transcends into the general election."

The Democratic candidates seeking to replace Rep. Don Bacon and flip the seat blue are Cavanaugh, Rhoades, political action committee founder Denise Powell, retired eye surgeon Mark Johnston, veteran and former federal official Kishla Askins and former attorney and state attorney general candidate Evangelos Argyrakis.

GBAO said Powell polled at 9%, Johnston 5% and Askins 4%. Powell, Johnston and Askins are each running for office for the first time ever. The GBAO poll did not include Argyrakis.

Powell has taken an early fundraising lead, reporting $430,000 in donations for the quarter that ended July 1. Powell "has all the momentum in this race," campaign manager Meg Mandy said, adding that Powell has supported candidates and campaigns to expand health care, strengthen public schools and protect reproductive rights. She said that work helped Powell lead in fundraising and build a wide coalition of support. 

Mandy said Cavanaugh is from a "political dynasty" and may be familiar to voters early in the race, "but at the ballot box next May, Nebraskans will show they're ready for a new leader who they can believe in." 

Cavanaugh raised about $130,000 and Johnston about $7,000 in the Federal Election Commission's last filing quarter.

Askins' campaign manager said Monday they've raised $175,000 since announcing two weeks ago. Danielle Salanitri, the campaign manager, said Askins has an "unmatched" lifetime of service and, "We're confident once Nebraskans learn more about her story and vision for our community, they'll choose her to represent them in Congress." 

Johnston said he launched his campaign early as a newcomer to politics to get established as a candidate. A career in medicine and running his surgery center required starting from scratch multiple times, he said, so he's eager to keep building name recognition and connecting with voters. 

The Republicans who have announced their candidacy are Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding and former State Sen. Brett Lindstrom. National election forecasters have shifted the closely-watched battleground race in favor of a Democrat since Bacon announced he will retire from Congress.

Correction: Denise Powell raised about $430,000 in the quarter that ended July 1. A previous version of the story misstated the total. A third-party recruiting Crystal Rhoades as a candidate commissioned a poll of Democratic voters in May and June. A previous version of the story misstated who commissioned the poll.